Forecasting explosion repose intervals with a non-parametric Bayesian survival model:Application to Sakura-jima volcano, Japan

Forecasting the repose between eruptions at a volcano is a key goal of volcanology for emergency planning and preparedness. Previous studies have used the statistical distribution of prior repose intervals to estimate the probability of a certain repose interval occurring in the future, and to offer insights into the underlying physical processes that govern eruption frequency. However, distributions are only decipherable after the eruption, when a full dataset is available, or not at all in the case of an incomplete time-series. Thus there is value in using an approach that does not assume an underlying distribution in forecasting likely repose intervals, and that can make use of additional information that may be related to the duration of repose. The use of a non-parametric survival model is novel in volcanology, as the size of eruption records is typically insufficient. Here, we apply a non-parametric Bayesian grouped time Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) survival model to the extensive 58-year eruption record (1956 to 2013) of Vulcanian explosions at Sakura-jima volcano, Japan. The model allows for the use of multiple observed and recorded data sets, such as plume height or seismic amplitude, even if some of the information is incomplete. Thus any relationships between explosion variables and subsequent or prior repose interval can be investigated. The model was successfully able to forecast future repose intervals for Sakura-jima using information about the prior plume height, plume colour and repose durations. For plume height, smaller plumes are followed by shorter repose intervals. This provides one of the first statistical models that uses plume height to quantitatively forecast explosion frequency.NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore)MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore)Published versio

The influence of individual cognitive style on performance in management education

This paper reports the outcomes of an empirical study undertaken to explore the possibility that cognitive style may be an important factor influencing performance on certain types of task in management education. Four hundred and twelve final-year undergraduate degree students studying management and business administration were tested using the Allinson-Hayes Cognitive Style Index. Their cognitive styles were then compared with assessment grades achieved for academic modules, the task categories of which were deemed to be consonant with either the wholist/intuitive or the analytic style of working. Overall ability defined by final degree grades was also tested against individuals’ cognitive styles. As expected, students whose dominant cognitive styles were analytic attained higher grades for long term solitary tasks involving careful planning and analysis of information. However, contrary to expectations, performance on tasks believed to be more suited to the wholist/intuitive style was also higher for analytic individuals, as was overall ability defined by final degree grades. The results were discussed in terms of the nature of the tasks and the need for methods of performance assessment that are independent of an orientation bias. Without this, it is argued, employment selection criteria may favour the wrong type of candidate in some circumstances

P-wave excited baryons from pion- and photo-induced hyperon production

We report evidence for $N(1710)P_{11}$, $N(1875)P_{11}$, $N(1900)P_{13}$, $\Delta(1600)P_{33}$, $\Delta(1910)P_{31}$, and $\Delta(1920)P_{33}$, and find indications that $N(1900)P_{13}$ might have a companion state at 1970\,MeV. The controversial $\Delta(1750)P_{31}$ is not seen. The evidence is derived from a study of data on pion- and photo-induced hyperon production, but other data are included as well. Most of the resonances reported here were found in the Karlsruhe-Helsinki (KH84) and the Carnegie-Mellon (CM) analyses but were challenged recently by the Data Analysis Center at GWU. Our analysis is constrained by the energy independent $\pi N$ scattering amplitudes from either KH84 or GWU. The two $\pi N$ amplitudes from KH84 or GWU, respectively, lead to slightly different $\pi N$ branching ratios of contributing resonances but the debated resonances are required in both series of fits.Comment: 22 pages, 28 figures. Some additional sets of data are adde

Prenatal iodine supplementation and early childhood neurodevelopment: the PoppiE trial - study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION: Observational studies suggest both low and high iodine intakes in pregnancy are associated with poorer neurodevelopmental outcomes in children. This raises concern that current universal iodine supplement recommendations for pregnant women in populations considered to be iodine sufficient may negatively impact child neurodevelopment. We aim to determine the effect of reducing iodine intake from supplements for women who have adequate iodine intake from food on the cognitive development of children at 24 months of age. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A multicentre, randomised, controlled, clinician, researcher and participant blinded trial with two parallel groups. Using a hybrid decentralised clinical trial model, 754 women (377 per group) less than 13 weeks' gestation with an iodine intake of ≥165 µg/day from food will be randomised to receive either a low iodine (20 µg/day) multivitamin and mineral supplement or an identical supplement containing 200) µg/day (amount commonly used in prenatal supplements in Australia), from enrolment until delivery. The primary outcome is the developmental quotient of infants at 24 months of age assessed with the Cognitive Scale of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, fourth edition. Secondary outcomes include infant language and motor development; behavioural and emotional development; maternal and infant clinical outcomes and health service utilisation of children. Cognitive scores will be compared between groups using linear regression, with adjustment for location of enrolment and the treatment effect described as a mean difference with 95% CI. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted from the Women's and Children's Health Network Research Ethics Committee (HREC/17/WCHN/187). The results of this trial will be presented at scientific conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04586348.Karen P Best, Jacqueline F Gould, Maria Makrides, Thomas Sullivan, Jeanie Cheong, Shao J Zhou, Stefan Kane, Huda Safa, A Sparks, Lex W Doyle, A J McPhee, Tanya A C Nippita, Hossein H A Afzali, Rosalie Grivell, D Mackerras, E Knight, Simon Wood, Tim Gree

Nucleon resonances in the fourth resonance region

Nucleon and $\Delta$ resonances in the fourth resonance region are studied in a multichannel partial-wave analysis which includes nearly all available data on pion- and photo-induced reactions off protons. In the high-mass range, above 1850\,MeV, several alternative solutions yield a good description of the data. For these solutions, masses, widths, pole residues and photo-couplings are given. In particular, we find evidence for nucleon resonances with spin-parities $J^P=1/2^+...7/2^+$. For one set of solutions, there are four resonances forming naturally a spin-quartet of resonances with orbital angular momentum L=2 and spin S=3/2 coupling to $J=1/2,...,7/2$. Just below 1.9\,GeV we find a spin doublet of resonances with $J^P=1/2^-$ and $3/2^-$. Since a spin partner with $J^P=5/2^-$ is missing at this mass, the two resonances form a spin doublet which must have a symmetric orbital-angular-momentum wave function with L=1. For another set of solutions, the four positive-parity resonances are accompanied by mass-degenerate negative-parity partners -- as suggested by the conjecture of chiral symmetry restoration. The possibility of a $J^P=1/2^+, 3/2^+$ spin doublet at 1900\,MeV belonging to a 20-plet is discussed.Comment: 16 page

Customer emotions in service failure and recovery encounters

Emotions play a significant role in the workplace, and considerable attention has been given to the study of employee emotions. Customers also play a central function in organizations, but much less is known about customer emotions. This chapter reviews the growing literature on customer emotions in employee–customer interfaces with a focus on service failure and recovery encounters, where emotions are heightened. It highlights emerging themes and key findings, addresses the measurement, modeling, and management of customer emotions, and identifies future research streams. Attention is given to emotional contagion, relationships between affective and cognitive processes, customer anger, customer rage, and individual differences